Economy and News
Macro shifts, policy moves, and the news that actually hits the budget.
The Unemployment Rate Is the Wrong Number to Watch
The headline jobless rate leaves out anyone who stopped looking and anyone stuck in part time work. Two other numbers describe the job...
The Biggest Piece of Inflation Is Rent Nobody Pays
The largest single line in the inflation report is a rent figure that homeowners are asked to estimate about their own houses.
The Average Income Describes Almost No One
The average is the most quoted income number in the news and one of the most misleading. A second number tells the truer story.
Renters Have the Most to Lose When Inflation Rises
When prices climb, renters often feel it first and worst. A fixed mortgage shields owners in ways a yearly lease never will.
A Penny Now Costs 3.69 Cents to Make
A one cent coin costs almost four cents to produce. The mint has lost money on the penny for nineteen years straight and is now winding it...
The Shocking Truth About GDP and What It Really Counts
GDP is the number we treat as the score for the whole country. It counts some strange things and quietly ignores others that matter far...
The 4 Phases Every Economy Moves Through
Economies do not grow in a straight line. They move through four repeating phases, and knowing where you likely are helps you read the news...
Why Is So Much Economic Data Seasonally Adjusted?
Almost every job, sales, and growth number you read has been seasonally adjusted first. Here is what that phrase means and why it changes...
The Shocking Truth About the Unemployment Rate
The headline jobs number leaves whole groups out on purpose. A broader rate the government also publishes runs nearly double it, and the...
The Inflation Report That Hints Where Prices Go Next
Most people watch the Consumer Price Index. The Producer Price Index measures costs one step upstream and can signal what is coming.
The Shocking Truth About How Recessions Get Declared
Most people think two bad quarters equals a recession. The real process is slower, quieter, and decided by a small committee long after the...
68 Percent of the Economy Comes Down to What You Spend
Consumer spending makes up more than two thirds of US economic output. That single fact explains a lot about how the country grows and...
The Fed Wants Prices to Keep Rising on Purpose
Most people think the goal is to stop inflation cold. The central bank actually aims for steady 2 percent price growth, and there are solid...
How Do Economists See a Recession Coming?
Economists watch a handful of forward looking signals to sense a slowdown before it arrives. Here is what those indicators are and what...
Why Do Prices Stay High Even When Inflation Falls?
When the news says inflation is cooling, prices are still rising, just more slowly. Here is why a falling inflation rate does not bring...
What Does the Fed Actually Control When Rates Change?
The Federal Reserve does not set your mortgage or credit card rate directly. Here is the one rate it truly moves and how it ripples out.
Nobody Is Telling You the Jobs Number Gets Revised Twice
The monthly jobs figure everyone reacts to is a first estimate that gets revised twice, and once a year by hundreds of thousands. Here is...
Why Do People Keep Confusing the Deficit and the Debt?
The deficit and the debt sound like the same thing, but they measure two very different numbers. Mixing them up leads to a lot of confused...
What GDP Really Measures, and What It Misses
The economy grew. That headline rests on one number called GDP, and it leaves out more than most people realize.
What Separates a Recession From a Depression?
People use the two words like they mean the same thing. They do not, and the gap between them changes how you should read the headlines.
The Real Reason We Barely Touch Cash Anymore
Most people think cash is fading because of tap to pay and phones. The deeper reason is that the vast majority of money was never physical...
Why Does Every Gas Price End in Nine Tenths of a Cent?
That odd fraction on every gas sign is part tax history and part mind trick. Here is why it has survived for almost a century.
Why Do Coins Have Ridges on the Edge?
The ridges on a dime or quarter are called reeding, and they were invented to stop people from stealing precious metal off the edges of...
Why Doesn't the Unemployment Rate Count Everyone?
The headline jobs number leaves out millions of people by design. Here is who gets excluded and the broader measure that fills the gap.