Texas Senate GOP Runoff Heads Into Final Stretch With Paxton Up Eight on Cornyn

The 2026 Texas Senate Republican primary runoff is scheduled for Tuesday, May 26, and the contest between four-term Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton enters its final four weeks with Paxton holding a measurable lead. Texas Public Opinion Research released a poll on April 17 showing Paxton at 48 percent, Cornyn at 40 percent, and 11 percent undecided among likely runoff voters. The 8-point margin is outside the poll's stated margin of error and reflects movement away from earlier Emerson College surveys that showed the race in a dead heat through February. Both campaigns have spent April hardening their coalitions through targeted television and digital buys in the Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin markets.

The TPOR demographic breakdown shows Paxton leading Cornyn 50 to 40 percent among men, 53 to 36 percent among voters without college degrees, 52 to 34 percent among Latino voters, and across every age group under 65. Cornyn carries voters 65 and older 45 to 43 percent and college-educated voters 46 to 42 percent. Among likely runoff voters who supported Houston congressman Wesley Hunt in the March 3 primary, Paxton leads 45 to 32 percent. Hunt finished third in the primary with roughly 18 percent of the vote and has not endorsed in the runoff, though his political operation has signaled that a late endorsement is possible in the final week.

President Donald Trump has not endorsed in the runoff and the TPOR poll tested the question. The poll found that even with a Trump endorsement, Cornyn would still trail Paxton 45 to 42 percent. A Trump endorsement of Paxton would push the attorney general's lead to 55 to 35. Cornyn was first elected to the Senate in 2002 and has served as Republican whip and majority whip during portions of his tenure. Paxton was elected attorney general in 2014, served three terms, and was acquitted by the Texas Senate on impeachment charges in September 2023. He has campaigned as a more confrontational alternative on border policy, federal energy regulation, and the Department of Justice.

The general election poses a different equation for Texas Republicans. State Representative James Talarico won the Democratic primary on March 3 and reported $27.4 million raised in Q1 according to FEC filings released April 15. The TPOR survey found that 24 percent of Cornyn primary voters indicated they would be likely to vote for Talarico in the general if Paxton is the nominee. That figure compares to 6 percent of Paxton primary voters who said they would consider Talarico if Cornyn is the nominee. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, and the last Democrat to win a Texas Senate race was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.

Voter turnout in Texas runoffs is historically lower than primaries by a factor of two to three. The March 3 primary drew approximately 1.92 million Republican voters according to the Secretary of State. Past runoff turnout patterns suggest the May 26 contest will draw between 700,000 and 950,000 voters. Cornyn's path requires holding the 65-and-older bloc, expanding his college-educated margin, and converting undecided voters who lean toward institutional Republicans. Paxton's path requires turnout from his existing coalition and avoiding any unforced legal or campaign event in the final stretch.

Television spending picked up sharply during the week of April 20 according to AdImpact data. Cornyn allies including Senate Leadership Fund affiliated entities have reserved $4.8 million in airtime through May 25. Paxton's campaign and aligned super PACs have reserved $3.2 million in the same window. Both sides are running contrast spots focused on each other's records, with Cornyn ads emphasizing seniority and committee assignments and Paxton ads emphasizing border enforcement and federal pushback. The campaigns plan a single televised debate on May 14 hosted by Nexstar Media in Dallas.

Early voting for the runoff begins Monday, May 11, and runs through Friday, May 22. Election Day is Tuesday, May 26. The winner of the runoff will face Talarico in the general election on November 3, 2026. Cornyn's seat is rated Lean Republican by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball as of April 18. The seat would shift to Toss-Up under both forecasters if Paxton becomes the nominee, according to public guidance from Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato issued earlier this month. Texas has 38 electoral votes and the Senate seat will be a defining contest in the 2026 cycle map.