The National Association of Realtors released its Pending Home Sales Index for March 2026 on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, giving the housing market its most current read on signed contract activity heading into the peak spring window. The headline index measures contracts signed but not yet closed on existing homes, which makes it a leading indicator for closings that will show up in April and May existing home sales reports. Economists surveyed before the release expected a small monthly decline of around half a percent following February's gain, with the year-over-year reading still negative but narrowing from the deeper losses recorded in late 2025. Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist, has spent much of the spring noting that buyer activity has improved alongside the recent dip in mortgage rates from the highs reached last summer.
The data arrives as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 6.23 percent according to the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey, the lowest spring level in three years. Rate sensitivity remains the dominant story for first-time buyers, who account for roughly 30 percent of monthly transactions. NAR has noted that every quarter point drop in the average mortgage rate brings an estimated 1.6 million additional households into the qualification pool at the national median price point. The pending index does not reflect the full impact of the most recent rate moves, since contracts in March were largely written when rates briefly traded near 6.45 percent in late February.
Regional results are expected to show continued divergence across the four Census regions. The Northeast and Midwest have led the country in year-over-year gains for the past several months, supported by tighter inventory and steadier price growth in mid-sized metros. The South, which represents roughly 45 percent of national activity, has lagged due to elevated insurance premiums in Florida and softer demand across parts of Texas where new construction continues to absorb buyer interest. The West remains the most rate-sensitive region, with California, Arizona, and Colorado posting the largest swings in pending activity month-to-month.
Builder activity provides a parallel picture. The Census Bureau reported new home sales for March on April 23, showing a seasonally adjusted annual rate near 695,000, slightly above consensus. Mortgage rate buy-down programs offered by Lennar, D.R. Horton, Pulte, KB Home, and Meritage have contributed to roughly 38 percent of new home transactions in the first quarter according to John Burns Research and Consulting. The combination of new home availability and builder financing concessions has held builder market share above 25 percent of total single-family activity, well above the long-run average near 12 percent.
Inventory of existing homes for sale stood at 1.39 million units at the end of March according to NAR, up roughly 18 percent year-over-year and the highest March reading since 2020. Months of supply at the current sales pace measured 4.1 months nationally, still below the 5 to 6 months traditionally associated with a balanced market. Buyers in higher-priced metros including Boston, San Diego, Seattle, and Washington continue to face supply tighter than the national average. Sellers in Sun Belt metros including Tampa, Orlando, Phoenix, and Austin face longer days on market and more frequent price reductions.
Mortgage application volume reported by the MBA on April 23 showed purchase applications up 23 percent from the same week last year, marking the eighth consecutive weekly year-over-year gain. Refinance activity has more than doubled from year-ago levels but remains historically low because the share of mortgages with a coupon rate above 6 percent is small. The Federal Housing Administration reported 203(k) renovation loan volume up 47 percent in 2025 and tracking 35 percent higher year-to-date in 2026, indicating that buyers are increasingly using federal renovation programs to bridge price gaps in older inventory.
Forward indicators released this week include the Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indexes for February, both reported Tuesday morning. National prices were up 3.4 percent year-over-year on the Case-Shiller composite and 3.7 percent on the FHFA purchase-only index, the slowest annual gains in nearly three years. Markets including Tampa, Dallas, Phoenix, and Denver posted year-over-year price declines on Case-Shiller for the first time in this cycle. The slower price growth combined with rate stability has improved housing affordability for the third straight month according to the NAR Affordability Index.
The next housing data points on the calendar include existing home sales for April released May 22 and new home sales for April released May 23, both of which will reflect contracts in part captured by today's pending index. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50 to 3.75 percent at Wednesday's FOMC meeting, with the next opportunity for a rate cut at the June 16 to 17 meeting. CME futures pricing on Wednesday morning implied a 64 percent probability of a 25 basis point reduction in June, which would be the first cut since December 2025.