The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March 2026 on Wednesday morning, showing openings at 7.1 million across the economy, down from 7.3 million in February and well below the 12.1 million peak in March 2022. The number of unemployed workers per opening rose to 1.0, the highest reading since April 2021 when pandemic hiring still distorted the ratio. The hires rate held at 3.4 percent and the quits rate stayed at 2.0 percent, both consistent with a labor market that is no longer accelerating but has not broken either. Layoffs and discharges came in at 1.7 million, near the long run average and a sign that employers are still holding onto workers even as they slow new hiring.
Job openings fell most sharply in professional and business services, down 184,000 month over month, and in the federal government, where the ongoing reduction in force tied to the second Trump administration cut openings by 47,000 in March alone. Health care and social assistance held flat with 1.5 million openings, the largest single category, reflecting demand that has not cooled with the rest of the economy. Construction openings fell 38,000 even as housing starts slowed, while accommodation and food services dropped 52,000 as restaurants and hotels right sized for slower spring travel. State and local government openings stayed elevated at 763,000, with school districts continuing to report unfilled teaching and support roles.
The quits rate remained at 2.0 percent, well below the 3.0 percent reading from April 2022 that defined the great resignation period. Workers are not voluntarily leaving jobs at the pace they did during the post pandemic period, which historically signals reduced confidence in finding a better position quickly. Economists at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have noted that quits rate trends typically lead wage growth by six to nine months, and the current reading is consistent with average hourly earnings settling between 3.4 and 3.8 percent year over year through the back half of 2026. The Federal Reserve tracks both the openings to unemployed ratio and the quits rate as supplemental signals on labor market tightness, alongside the monthly nonfarm payrolls report.
The release lands the same week as the Federal Reserve's April meeting, where the policy committee held the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent earlier Wednesday afternoon. Fed funds futures showed a 64 percent probability of a quarter point cut at the June 16 to 17 meeting before the JOLTS release, with the figure largely unchanged after the data hit the tape. The April nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release Friday May 8, with consensus calling for 145,000 to 160,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3 percent. ADP's private payrolls report, which serves as a private sector preview, is scheduled for Wednesday May 6.
Regional breakdowns showed openings declining across all four Census regions, with the South dropping 78,000 and the Midwest dropping 52,000. The South's reading reflects continued cooling in Texas and Florida construction and hospitality. The Northeast posted the smallest decline at 21,000, helped by sustained openings in financial services and education. Manufacturing openings rose modestly by 14,000, the second consecutive monthly gain, in line with the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index reading of 49.1 for March.
Workforce participation among prime age workers, defined as ages 25 to 54, held at 83.4 percent in the most recent monthly employment report, near the 23 year high reached in late 2024. Continuing claims for unemployment insurance averaged 1.94 million in the four weeks ending April 19, up from 1.78 million a year earlier, suggesting that workers who do lose jobs are taking longer to find new ones. The duration of unemployment averaged 22.4 weeks in March, the longest reading since February 2022.
Wall Street economists were divided on what the release means for the broader labor outlook. JPMorgan's team called the report consistent with a soft landing path, while Bank of America noted that the openings to unemployed ratio crossing 1.0 in either direction has historically preceded recessions within nine to fifteen months. The ratio remained above 1.0 from May 2021 through October 2025 before crossing back below in November of last year. Treasury yields moved modestly lower on the release, with the two year note settling at 3.84 percent and the ten year at 4.30 percent in morning trading.