Polls open at 6 a.m. Eastern Time across Indiana on Tuesday, May 5, for the special primary that has become a test case for the Trump aligned faction of the Republican Party. The primary covers eight state Senate districts where the incumbent Republican senators voted against the mid decade congressional redistricting bill last month. Each of the eight districts has a Trump endorsed challenger running in the Republican primary. Polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern Time.
Indiana Republican leadership originally aimed to redraw the state's congressional map in March to convert two competitive districts into safe Republican seats. The redistricting bill cleared the Indiana House by a vote of 71 to 27 but stalled in the Senate after eight Republican senators joined Democrats to block the measure. The senators cited procedural concerns about mid decade redistricting and stated publicly that the map drawn after the 2020 census should remain in place until the 2030 cycle.
The eight senators who voted no, Vaneta Becker of Evansville, Liz Brown of Fort Wayne, Travis Holdman of Markle, Jean Leising of Oldenburg, Chris Garten of Charlestown, Mike Bohacek of Michiana Shores, Sue Glick of LaGrange, and Eric Koch of Bedford, drew Trump endorsed primary challengers within four days of the failed vote. Trump posted endorsements on Truth Social on April 14 and held a tele rally with all eight challengers on April 28.
AdImpact data shows 7.2 million dollars in television advertising across the eight districts since April 15, with an additional 2 million dollars in digital advertising tracked by AdImpact through May 2. Club for Growth Action spent 1.4 million dollars supporting the challengers. The Republican State Leadership Committee, which typically supports incumbents, has not spent in the primary. The Indiana Manufacturers Association endorsed all eight incumbents and ran 800,000 dollars in support advertising.
Polling in three of the districts conducted by Public Opinion Strategies between April 28 and May 1 shows tight races. In Senate District 50, Eric Koch leads challenger Jeff Copenhaver by 3 points within a margin of error of 4.4 points. In Senate District 32, Mike Bohacek trails challenger Mark Wilson by 2 points within the same margin. In Senate District 22, Travis Holdman trails challenger Brad Goode by 5 points. The remaining five districts have not been publicly polled.
Marion County opens 19,857 vote centers across Indianapolis at 6 a.m. Eastern with no excuse early voting through Monday at noon. Statewide turnout in special primaries typically runs 8 to 14 percent of registered voters. The Indiana Election Division projected 11 to 15 percent turnout based on the early vote count, which closed Monday with 247,000 ballots returned out of 4.7 million registered voters.
The implications extend beyond Indiana. The Tennessee special session opening Tuesday at 9 a.m. Central Time at the Cordell Hull Building considers a similar mid decade congressional redistricting bill targeting the 9th Congressional District represented by Steve Cohen of Memphis. Alabama Governor Kay Ivey called a special session for Tuesday at noon Central to consider undoing the second Black majority district that was created in response to the Allen v Milligan decision. Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves is expected to call a session before May 20 to consider redrawing the second district represented by Bennie Thompson.
Speaker of the U.S. House Mike Johnson has not commented publicly on the Indiana primary or the special session push. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the redistricting effort, quote, a direct assault on representation, end quote, in a statement Friday. Trump has made direct phone calls to three governors in the past week according to White House readouts.
The Department of Justice has indicated it will not intervene in any of the redistricting matters. The NAACP Legal Defense Fund filed preemptive litigation in the Western District of Tennessee on April 28 seeking to enjoin the Tennessee special session. The Fifth Circuit ruling in Callais v Louisiana, decided 6 to 3 on April 29, narrowed the Section 2 framework that had supported the existing maps.
The Brookings Institution analysis released April 30 estimates that successful Indiana redistricting plus successful Southern state redistricting would shift 4 to 6 House seats from Democratic to Republican, an outcome that would change the projected House composition for the 2027 Congress. The current House majority is 222 Republicans to 213 Democrats. The Cook Political Report has not yet updated its competitive seat ratings to reflect the redistricting wave.
The Indiana primary results are expected to be reported by 9 p.m. Eastern Tuesday, with results from Marion County and Vanderburgh County coming first and rural districts following by 10:30 p.m. Eastern. A sweep of the eight challenges, where all eight Trump endorsed candidates win, would be read as a strong signal that incumbents in Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi who oppose the redistricting effort face primary risk in 2027 and 2028. A split result, where four to five challengers win, would be read as ambiguous. A loss for the challengers in six or more districts would be read as evidence that incumbent advantage holds in state legislative primaries even with presidential endorsement.
The Indiana Election Division will post unofficial results at indianavoters.in.gov starting at 6 p.m. Eastern. The certified results are expected within 14 days. Brookings will issue an updated analysis Wednesday. The Congressional Budget Office is expected to release its updated political composition estimate on May 11.
