The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its advance estimate of first quarter Gross Domestic Product on Thursday, April 30, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Consensus of 67 economists tracked by Bloomberg has Q1 real GDP growth at an annualized 1.4 percent, with a range from 0.6 percent on the low end at Wells Fargo to 1.8 percent on the high end at JPMorgan and Bank of America. That range is the widest the consensus has shown since the second quarter of 2022, when supply chain disruptions and energy price moves were producing similar forecasting noise. Goldman Sachs sits at 1.3 percent, Morgan Stanley at 1.5 percent, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model finished Tuesday at 1.3 percent.
The advance estimate is the first of three readings BEA will publish on Q1 output. The second estimate is scheduled for May 28 and the third for June 25, with revisions in past cycles ranging from 0.2 to 0.7 percentage points in either direction. Q4 2025 came in at 2.6 percent in the third estimate after starting at 2.3 percent in the advance, so a downward initial print followed by upward revisions is plausible. The release will include details on personal consumption, gross private investment, net exports, and government spending that drive the headline figure.
Personal consumption is expected to add about 1.6 percentage points to growth, down from 2.4 in Q4. Real personal consumption expenditures rose at an estimated 2.4 percent annualized rate based on monthly income and outlays data through February. Goods spending has been weaker than services as consumers pulled back on auto purchases and big-ticket appliances, while services spending including healthcare, restaurants, and accommodation has held closer to the 2025 average. Retail sales for March came in flat versus expectations of plus 0.2 percent, which was one of the inputs that pulled GDPNow lower over the last two weeks.
Net exports are expected to be the largest drag on the headline number. Imports surged in February and March as businesses pulled forward orders ahead of expected tariff increases on Chinese-made consumer electronics and steel. Goldman estimates net exports will subtract about 1.1 percentage points from the headline. Inventories built modestly to absorb some of those imports, which will add back roughly 0.4 percentage points but will reverse in subsequent quarters as firms work down stocks. Both effects are mechanical and reflect timing rather than underlying demand.
Government spending is expected to add 0.3 percentage points, lower than the 0.6 average over the previous four quarters. Federal civilian payrolls are down 248,000 since November as the administration's hiring freeze and severance program have reduced the federal workforce. State and local government spending has been a steadier contributor, particularly construction tied to infrastructure law disbursements that are now in their fourth year. The DHS funding lapse that began February 15 and has stretched 75 days as of Wednesday is a small drag in Q1 but will show up more clearly in Q2.
The PCE price index, which the Federal Reserve uses for its 2 percent target, will be released Friday, May 2, at 8:30 a.m. as part of the personal income and outlays report. Headline PCE is expected to come in at 2.7 percent year over year, with core PCE at 2.6 percent. Both measures have been moving sideways for the last six months after declining steadily through 2024 and most of 2025. The Cleveland Fed nowcast pegs core PCE at 2.62 percent based on already-released CPI and PPI components.
For the Federal Reserve, the GDP and PCE prints land between Wednesday's policy decision and the June 16 to 17 meeting. The April Federal Open Market Committee statement is scheduled for 2 p.m. Wednesday, with Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. The committee is widely expected to hold the federal funds target at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Markets are pricing a 64 percent chance of a quarter-point cut at the June meeting, up from 41 percent a month ago, with the probability sensitive to the Q1 GDP and April PCE releases over the next 48 hours.
The practical implications run beyond rate-cut math. A weaker than expected Q1 print combined with steady core inflation would push the conversation toward stagflation framing, which has been picking up in client notes from BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Bridgewater this month. A stronger print would reinforce the soft-landing narrative and keep yields higher for longer, which matters for mortgage rates that have just dipped below 6.25 percent and for Treasury auctions next week including the 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year refunding cycle. For working households, the immediate read is whether real income growth held up, which the report will show in the personal income and disposable personal income lines released alongside Friday's PCE data.