Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott of South Carolina announced Monday afternoon that the committee will hold a confirmation vote on Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair on Tuesday May 6 at 10 a.m. eastern, setting a clear timeline for the most consequential financial policy nomination of the year. Warsh, 56, served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 under Ben Bernanke and has been on the short list for chair since the Trump administration began signaling in February that Jerome Powell would not be reappointed when his term as chair expires May 15. Powell remains a sitting governor through 2028 regardless of the chair decision and has indicated he will continue in that role.
The committee vote will follow the second day of public hearings, which began Friday April 24 and resumed Monday April 27 with questions from Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, and Mark Warner of Virginia. Warsh has fielded questions on three primary lines of inquiry. The first is his view on the Fed balance sheet and whether quantitative tightening should accelerate. The second is his stance on the dual mandate and whether employment should remain coequal with price stability. The third is his independence from the White House given his long standing relationship with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his role as a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
The math in committee is favorable but tight. Republicans hold a 13 to 11 majority on Banking. All 11 Democrats are expected to vote no. Among the 13 Republicans, two senators have signaled concerns. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said in a statement Friday that she wants to see Warsh commit to maintaining the Fed inspector general independence in light of recent staffing reductions. Senator Susan Collins of Maine has not publicly committed either way, though she met with Warsh privately on Thursday April 23. If both Murkowski and Collins vote no, the nomination still advances 11 to 13 because Senator Tim Scott controls the gavel and can move the vote. The path narrows on the floor, where the full Republican caucus holds 53 seats and Vice President J.D. Vance can break a tie at 50 to 50.
Warsh's testimony Friday was direct on the question of independence. He told the committee that the Fed should not be subject to political pressure on rate decisions and committed to maintaining the same internal review process Powell built around the Federal Open Market Committee meetings. He drew a distinction between regulatory policy, where he said the Fed had overstepped during the post 2008 period, and monetary policy, where he said independence was nonnegotiable. Senator Warren pressed him on whether he would recuse himself from any decision involving banks where his former employer Morgan Stanley has financial interests. Warsh said he would follow standard ethics procedures and noted he has been out of banking for 14 years.
The economic backdrop adds weight to the vote timing. The Federal Open Market Committee meets Wednesday April 29 and Thursday April 30, with markets pricing roughly a 13 percent chance of a rate cut at this meeting and 60 percent by June. The Q1 GDP advance estimate releases Thursday morning ahead of the second day of the FOMC meeting, with consensus at 1.4 percent annualized growth. The April jobs report follows Friday May 8 with consensus at 158 thousand payrolls and a 4.2 percent unemployment rate. Warsh's nomination vote will land on the calendar between these two data points, which means the committee will have a fresh read on growth and inflation when it casts the vote.
Tillis of North Carolina, who chairs the subcommittee on financial institutions, told reporters Sunday on Meet the Press that he is ready to advance Warsh and that the Department of Justice probe into Powell's congressional testimony was officially closed last week, which clears one piece of background noise that had complicated the timing. Senator Mike Crapo of Idaho has been working the caucus for vote count purposes and as of Monday evening reported 51 firm yes votes on the floor with two members holding for personal meetings.
If Warsh is confirmed on the floor as expected the week of May 12, he would take office May 15 immediately following the end of Powell's term as chair. The first FOMC meeting under his chairmanship would be June 16 and 17, which is also the meeting at which markets are currently pricing the highest probability of the first rate cut of 2026. Warsh has not committed to any specific path on rates and is unlikely to do so before the meeting. His public writing over the last decade has been broadly hawkish, though his recent commentary at the Hoover Institution last fall suggested he sees the current restrictive policy stance as appropriate given the slow disinflation pace. The June meeting will be the first real test of how his views translate into committee dynamics.