Texas Republicans Signal Mid-Decade Redistricting Push Following Florida Lead

Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows told reporters in Austin Tuesday morning that Republican leadership is "actively reviewing options" on a mid-decade congressional redistricting effort, hours after Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida convened a special legislative session to redraw four Democratic-held seats. Burrows did not commit to a special session in Texas but said staff have been instructed to "model what a fair map looks like in light of the population growth this state has seen since 2020." Texas added 1.4 million residents between the 2020 and 2024 estimates, the most of any state.

Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick echoed the position in a separate statement Tuesday afternoon, saying the Texas Senate "stands ready" to act if the House moves. Governor Greg Abbott has not yet publicly weighed in but his office confirmed to the Texas Tribune that the governor "is in regular communication with the speaker and lieutenant governor on all matters of state policy." Texas currently has 38 congressional districts, divided 25 Republican to 13 Democratic. The seats most discussed in early reports are the 28th, 34th, and 35th, which run through South Texas and Austin and have shifted Republican by 8 to 14 points since 2020.

The legal landscape changed dramatically on April 9 when the Supreme Court issued its ruling in Callais v. Landry, which gave states broader latitude to consider partisan performance in redistricting and limited the reach of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in mid-decade redraws. The 6-3 decision split the court along familiar lines, with Justice Brett Kavanaugh writing for the majority that "states retain primary authority over the manner of elections, and the federal courts have repeatedly cautioned against constitutionalizing every line drawn." The ruling specifically left open whether mid-decade redistricting outside the normal post-census cycle is permissible, language that Republican legal teams have read as a green light.

Marc Elias, the Democratic election attorney who has handled most of the high profile redistricting cases of the last decade, told MSNBC Monday night that his firm is "ready to file the moment any state actually puts a new map in front of a court." Elias added that the Texas situation is more complicated than Florida because Texas has a higher Hispanic population and Section 2 challenges in South Texas have historically had stronger factual records. The NAACP Legal Defense Fund and the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law issued a joint statement Tuesday calling the prospect of a Texas redraw "a direct attack on Latino and Black voting power in two of the fastest growing states in the country."

The Florida session that prompted Tuesday's Texas announcement is scheduled to run April 28 through May 1. DeSantis introduced a draft map Monday morning that would shift the state's congressional delegation from 20 Republican and 8 Democratic seats to 24 Republican and 4 Democratic seats. The four Democratic seats most affected are FL-9 held by Darren Soto, FL-14 held by Kathy Castor, FL-23 held by Jared Moskowitz, and FL-27 held by Maria Salazar. The map cracks the Haitian American community in North Miami and Little Haiti by splitting the area across three districts. Florida House Democrats have signaled they will use procedural delay tactics to push the vote into Friday, with the legal filing deadline for new candidates set at June 12.

Cook Political Report's David Wasserman published a national analysis Tuesday afternoon estimating that if both Florida and Texas complete mid-decade redraws as currently sketched, Republicans could net 8 to 12 House seats heading into 2027 redistricting, before any responses from blue states. California, New York, and Illinois have all signaled they would consider responsive map changes if red states proceed. Virginia's Democratic-led legislature on April 21 passed a map that adds approximately four Democratic-leaning seats by reshaping the southwestern and Tidewater regions, a move that some Democrats describe as a preemptive counter.

The political effects are not limited to House math. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in a Capitol hallway Tuesday that mid-decade redistricting is "a state by state matter" but acknowledged that the issue would "almost certainly come up" in Senate confirmation hearings for the next round of federal judges. Speaker Mike Johnson, who held a closed door conference meeting Tuesday morning, declined to commit one way or the other, saying only that "states are within their rights to draw their own maps." House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the Texas signal "naked partisan power grab dressed up as routine."

The community level effect in Texas would land hardest in three areas. South Texas border counties between Brownsville and Laredo would likely be combined with more Republican leaning Hill Country precincts under the maps being modeled. Houston's Fort Bend and northwest Harris County districts, which include large Asian American and African American populations, could be redrawn to weaken minority voting power. Austin's 35th district, which already extends in a thin corridor down to San Antonio, would likely be redrawn entirely. Civil rights groups have begun coordinating with local pastors, business owners, and civic organizations across these regions to prepare for hearings if a special session is called.

The next benchmark dates to watch are May 1, when Florida's session is scheduled to end, and May 19, when the Texas legislature's interim committee on redistricting holds its first scheduled hearing. Filing for the 2026 Texas primary opens September 8.