Apple reports fiscal Q2 2026 results Thursday, April 30, after the close, with the analyst call at 5 p.m. Eastern. Consensus from 32 sell-side analysts tracked by Bloomberg has revenue at $109.7 billion and earnings per share at $1.95. That works out to about 15 percent revenue growth and 18 percent EPS growth year over year, which would be the strongest top line print since Q1 2022 if it lands. The company beat on both lines in three of the last four quarters, with the only miss coming in fiscal Q4 2025 when iPhone shipments slipped against tougher comparisons.
iPhone revenue is the swing factor. Consensus has the iPhone segment at $56.5 billion, up from $51.3 billion in the year-ago quarter. UBS analyst David Vogt raised his target on Tuesday to $285 from $268, citing strong iPhone 17 Pro Max channel checks and a build forecast that came in 4 to 6 percent above his prior model. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wedbush all hold buy ratings with targets between $275 and $310. Bears at Barclays and KeyBanc are at hold with targets in the $215 to $235 range, citing services regulatory risk in Europe and a slower China refresh cycle. The stock closed Tuesday at $272.60, near a six-week high.
Services revenue is the higher-stakes line for the multiple. Consensus is $30.1 billion for Services, up from $26.6 billion last year, with operating margin in the segment around 73 percent. App Store revenue, advertising on the App Store and TV, payments through Apple Card and Apple Cash, and the iCloud subscription tier are the four largest contributors. The European Commission's Digital Markets Act enforcement actions and the Epic Games appeal in the U.S. Ninth Circuit remain the two regulatory items most likely to compress that margin over the next four quarters. Analysts will press CFO Kevan Parekh on the cumulative impact those actions have had on the App Store take rate so far, which Apple has not disclosed publicly.
Mac and iPad will be the smaller segments by dollar contribution. Mac revenue is expected at $7.6 billion versus $7.5 billion last year, with the M5 MacBook Pro launch contributing partial-quarter sales. iPad is expected at $7.4 billion, slightly below the year-ago $7.6 billion as the iPad Pro M5 refresh sits later in the calendar. Wearables, Home, and Accessories is expected at $8.0 billion, with Vision Pro contributing a smaller share than its launch quarter and AirPods Pro 3 as the strongest contributor. Greater China revenue is expected at $16.8 billion, up modestly year over year after three consecutive declining quarters.
Apple Intelligence, the company's on-device AI platform, is the biggest qualitative item on the call. The platform launched in October 2024 and has rolled out incrementally with each iOS, iPadOS, and macOS release. Wall Street wants two pieces of information on Thursday's call. First, what share of the active iPhone install base is now running an Apple Intelligence-capable device. Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate the figure at roughly 41 percent. Second, whether the partnership with OpenAI for Siri's expanded model and the reported partnership with Anthropic for an enterprise tier announced last quarter are translating into measurable Services revenue or remain costs against future revenue. The answer affects how analysts model Services growth in fiscal 2027.
Capital returns are expected to expand. Apple ended fiscal Q1 with $61.8 billion in cash and marketable securities, after spending $33.4 billion on buybacks and $3.8 billion on dividends. The board typically authorizes the new buyback program and dividend bump on the May earnings call. Consensus expects a buyback authorization in the $90 to $110 billion range and a dividend increase of approximately 4 cents to $0.29 per share quarterly. Capital returns of that scale would put fiscal 2026 total returns near $130 billion, in line with the prior three years.
CEO transition language will get parsed line by line. Tim Cook announced in February that he plans to retire later this year after 14 years as CEO. The company named John Ternus, senior vice president of hardware engineering and a 25-year Apple veteran, as his successor. Cook is expected to participate in Thursday's earnings call but Ternus will likely take questions on the hardware roadmap and supply chain. Investors are watching for clarity on the timing of Cook's actual departure, whether it lands in fiscal Q4 or carries into fiscal Q1 2027, and how Ternus plans to handle the AI partnership decisions that have so far run through Cook's office.
The implied move on options is approximately 3.4 percent in either direction, which is roughly half the magnitude of the Q4 fiscal 2025 reaction. Apple trades at 33 times forward EPS versus a five-year average of 28 times. The stock has gained 19 percent year to date versus 8.4 percent for the S&P 500.