AAA released its 2026 Memorial Day weekend travel forecast Tuesday morning. The organization projects 47.1 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home between Thursday May 21 and Monday May 25. That number would set a new all-time record for the holiday and would surpass the previous record of 44.2 million set in 2024. The 2019 record on the air-travel side, 3.55 million daily TSA throughput, is also expected to break.
Of the 47.1 million projected travelers, AAA expects 39.4 million to drive, 4.6 million to fly, and 3.1 million to use other modes including buses, trains, and cruises. The driving figure is up 2.8 percent year over year. The flying figure is up 6.4 percent. The cruise segment is up 11 percent and reflects continued strong recovery in the Caribbean and Alaska itineraries. Memorial Day is traditionally the kickoff of the summer travel season and has historically tracked closely with the rest of the summer pattern.
Gas prices are a tailwind for the road segment. The national average for regular unleaded sat at $3.41 per gallon Monday, roughly 12 cents below the same week last year. AAA expects the price to drift modestly higher into the holiday but to stay below $3.55 nationally. Crude oil prices have stabilized in the upper $80s per barrel through April, partly because of the Hormuz situation tied to Iran negotiations. If the Hormuz situation escalates, gas prices could move several cents higher quickly. Most refiners have completed the seasonal switch to summer-blend gasoline.
Air travel is the segment most exposed to the ongoing DHS shutdown. TSA staffing is down roughly 838 officers since the lapse began in February, with the steepest losses at Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Charlotte, and Phoenix. TSA Administrator David Pekoske briefed Senate appropriators last week that wait times could push above 90 minutes at the largest hubs over Memorial Day weekend if the shutdown continues. The TSA precheck program has been less affected than the standard line because the staffing model is different.
Airline pricing is the other story. Delta, American, and United have not announced fare increases tied to the staffing situation. Average domestic round-trip fares for Memorial Day weekend tracked by Hopper sit at $382, roughly 4 percent below last year. International fares are flat year over year. The drop in domestic fares reflects added capacity. U.S. carriers are flying roughly 3.2 percent more seats this Memorial Day than last, with Spirit, Frontier, and Breeze adding the most capacity in absolute terms.
Hotel pricing has held firm. Average daily rates for Memorial Day weekend tracked by STR sit at $231 in major leisure destinations. That is up 2.1 percent year over year, below the rate of inflation for the first time since 2022. Strong supply growth in markets including Nashville, Charleston, and Savannah is putting downward pressure on rates. The luxury segment has stayed strong but the mid-tier has softened. Vacation rentals are growing faster than hotels in the same markets, with Vrbo and Airbnb both reporting 18 percent year-over-year volume growth heading into the weekend.
Top destinations for the holiday are predictable. Orlando ranks first by AAA bookings, followed by Anaheim, Las Vegas, Seattle, and New York City. Beach destinations including the Gulf Coast and the Outer Banks pull strong regional traffic. Internationally, Cancun, Punta Cana, Rome, and London top the list. Cancun in particular has been the standout international destination of 2026 and is up 22 percent on flight bookings year over year.
The cruise segment deserves separate attention. Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian have posted the strongest Memorial Day booking pace any of the three has seen since the pandemic. Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein told analysts in March that booking pace into the summer was running 11 percent ahead of the same point last year. Pricing on a per-cabin basis is up 6 percent. The Caribbean remains the dominant region. Alaska is benefiting from a pull-forward of bookings driven by warm-weather marketing campaigns.
Memorial Day weekend is also when most road infrastructure projects pause. State DOTs in 38 states have published holiday work pause schedules covering the Friday afternoon through Tuesday morning window. The pause should reduce travel friction in heavy-construction states including Texas, Florida, and Georgia. Drivers can expect heaviest road volumes Thursday afternoon and Monday afternoon. AAA recommends departing before 11 a.m. or after 7 p.m. on those two days.
For travelers who would rather skip the volume, the data favors a delayed return. Tuesday May 26 saw roughly 38 percent less highway congestion than Monday on a typical Memorial Day pattern. Air fares Tuesday and Wednesday after the holiday weekend are also softer, often by $40 to $80 round trip. The flexibility option will not work for everyone but it is the cheapest hedge against the shutdown-related airport delays.